LOOKING FOR SIGNS OF SPRING
After several months of reshaping, there are glimmers that the Northern California real estate market is “stabilizing.” While the medians continue to move around, sales have pleasantly picked up in many areas. What does this mean? Well, while we don’t have a crystal ball, we look at the fact that our government has taken steps to try and boost the residential housing market and that buyer and seller expectations are starting to get more in line with the realities of today’s market. The arrival of spring, a traditionally strong season for real estate, has brought with it a sense of optimism too. Combined with historically low mortgage rates, increased conforming limits and plentiful inventory in many areas, the timing may be just right for those looking to enter the real estate market or “move up” to another home.
Statistics:
Statewide: The median resale price of a single-family detached home in California for February was $409,240, down almost 5% for the month and over 26% from February 2007. Sales activity decreased 28.5% from a year earlier. Unsold resale inventory represented a 14.3-month supply, compared to 8.2 months (CAR’s revision) for the same period a year ago; median number of days till sale was 69 in February, up from 66 (CAR’s revision; we said 70 at the time) for the month a year earlier.
Marin County: Median is better than most – meaning, still at a level that it has visited within the last two years – but, even after a February up tick in sales, activity is below the 200 level that seemed ironclad only last fall.
Monterey County: Median and volume have been flat since December, but both are below historical averages.
San Benito County: Median has slid in a year from almost $600,000 to barely over $400,000. Sales are at last February’s level, but at less than half of their peak last July. Sales may recover when summer comes.
San Francisco Bay: Thanks to pockets of strength within the region, median has declined only about 12% for the year; sales year-over-year are down by over a third.
San Francisco County: A bright twinkle as the county’s sales in February were 380 to 375 a year earlier, while median was about $738,000 to last year’s $749,000. Exceptional proportions of cash buyers and overseas buyers are lifting San Francisco serenely above the general turmoil.
San Mateo County: Hard to tell at the moment, because Dataquick has released two vastly different figures for February median. Taking the optimistic one, we find that the county median has declined only a bit over 3% for the year – but sales are half what they were this month a year ago.
Santa Clara County: Santa Clara County’s sales total cycles through several months of four digits, followed by several months of three digits. Right now we are in three digits, not surprisingly, but this summer we may see a switch to four. Median, at $660,000, is barely below last year’s $685,000.
Santa Cruz County: In a recovery from last month, Santa Cruz median jumped almost $100,000 to a sort-of-reasonable $631,000 – only about 5% below last February. Although we don’t have a sales figure for February 2007, we’re guessing it was roughly 200, and now it is 40% of that.
Interest Rates*:
Cutting benchmark interest rates again and again, the Fed – at least temporarily – gives clear priority to helping domestic lenders at the possible expense of international investment; as we’ve been saying for years, this is a balancing act that the Fed may have the leverage to carry off intermittently, but it can’t be sustained forever. To quote (once again) the CAR’s formidable Chief Economist, Leslie Appleton-Young: “The…recent action to reduce the federal funds rate will have little near-term direct effect on the housing market, [but] should result in more favorable real estate finance rates as we move through the year.”
Thirty-year fixed mortgages are exactly where they were last April at 5.81%, 5/1 ARM is at about 5.8% and 5/1 jumbo ARM is at about 6.6%. Rates remain attractive, qualification is a little more difficult and it will probably be much later in the year before the situation changes materially in any direction.
Inventory
In almost all cases, hardly even worth thinking about. We do hear rumors about intensifying competition for really choice properties at the top end of the market.
Overall Assessment
Spring and summer are coming, and when they do, we hope that a fresh surge of interest in well-priced, well-presented properties will come with them. Warm weather and plentiful inventory may combine to exert powerful magic. Affordability is rising for some and the Northern California market glitters. Those who buy now may reap rewards for decades.
*Area interest rates are reported to be as follows:Sacramento/Tahoe, San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley regions: Princeton Capital reports that as of April 4, 2008, the 30-year fixed with one point is 6.875%, the 15-year fixed with one point is 6.375% and the 5/1 ARM with one point is 6.125%, on non-conforming loans of $500,000.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
MARKET FLASH – MARCH 2008
SPRING REVITALIZATION?
The real estate industry is abuzz with the new FHA loan limits for California finally approved by HUD. All in all, 14 California counties saw their loan limits for FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased to the $729,750 cap. Most were in the San Francisco Bay Area or other parts of Northern California, including Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Monterey, Napa, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz and Santa Clara Counties. The Sacramento area also saw its loan limits increase to $580,000. What does this mean for the Northern California real estate market? Increased opportunity for new and existing home buyers. The purpose of this increase in loan limits is to assist individuals who currently have “jumbo” loans (greater than $417,000) to refinance into lower and more affordable rates and payments. With the traditionally strong spring market just around the corner, the new loan limits may be just the thing to revive the Northern California market. Read on.
Statistics:
Statewide: The median resale price of a single-family detached home in California for January was $430,370, a decrease of almost 10% for the month and about 22% from January 2007. Unsold resale inventory represented a 16.8-month supply, compared to 7.6 months (CAR’s figure) for the same period a year ago. Median number of days till sale was 72 in January, up from 69 a year ago.
San Francisco Bay: Spring and summer monthly sales were 7,000 to 8,000; in September, they declined to roughly 5,000 and stayed there for awhile; now in January they have declined again, to about 3,600. After staying above $600,000 for over two years, regional median is currently at $550,000.
County Statistics:
San Francisco County: Sales for this county have shown a hectic collection of peaks and valleys as far back as we go, but 262 for January seems to be about half the recent historical average. Median, though, has fallen less than 1% year-over-year and is less than 4% below the three-year average; the typical San Francisco County buyer is probably well-off and may be international, and we have always thought that sales here can depend on a reliable core of cash (or at least high-down-payment) customers.
Alameda County: January’s 494 sales were about a quarter as many of March 2007’s recent peak of 1,840. Median was in the vicinity of $600,000 from the summer of 2006 to the fall of 2007 and since then has dropped off.
San Mateo County: January sales of 237 were down by more than half year-over-year. Median is down more than 10% year-over-year and 11% from the two-year average.
Santa Clara County: Sales in January were 628, less than half of 1,607 a year earlier; not great until we look at January 2006 with 335, or January 2005 with 423. Santa Clara monthly sales are constantly bouncing between a few hundred and somewhere over 2,000, so in context, they are typical. Median meanwhile has lost about 5% year-over-year and, perhaps more to the point, about 8% from the two-year average…not bad.
Santa Cruz County: Now what is this about, with the same county showing both the steepest drop in median and the best – or, well, “least bad” – decline in sales month-over-month? Clearly Santa Cruz will bear watching, as is often true. Median has lost almost 20% from the two-year average and sales are down to double digits.
Interest Rates*: 30-year fixed, 5.90%; 15-year fixed; 5.27%; 5/1 ARM at 5.03% is showing an awfully big discount from 30-year fixed, since not long ago the two rates were almost comparable (remember how we kept complaining?). Nonconforming loans are obviously a different story with 30-year fixed at 6.88% and 5/1 ARM at 5.68%. Rates were headed for the sky for most of January, but the new pegging of the Fed funds rate at 3% – including, bear in mind, the biggest single cut in the history of the rate, 75 basis points in one swoop – will let lenders keep loan rates attractive.
Inventory: Once more with feeling: “In many areas, inventory now and probably for the rest of this year, simply does not have to figure into deliberations.” True last year, true now.
Overall Assessment: Last year we said, “Loans are easy to get and cheap, bargains are plentiful, and those who buy now may reap the rewards of their good luck for years or decades.” Let’s edit that for the new reality: With the conforming loan limits increased through the end of 2008 and bargains almost everywhere, those who buy now will enjoy the comfort of a roof over their heads and a historically strong, long-term investment. A home is an asset and the comfort and security that it brings offers incomparable stability to an entire household. Those wishing to buy a home owe it to themselves to consider the long-term benefits – there may be no time like the present to act.
*Area interest rates are reported to be as follows:
Sacramento/Tahoe, San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley regions: Princeton Capital reports that as of March 10, 2008, the 30-year fixed with one point is 7.25%, the 15-year fixed with one point is 6.375% and the 5/1 ARM with one point is 6.625%, on non-conforming loans of $500,000.
The real estate industry is abuzz with the new FHA loan limits for California finally approved by HUD. All in all, 14 California counties saw their loan limits for FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased to the $729,750 cap. Most were in the San Francisco Bay Area or other parts of Northern California, including Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Monterey, Napa, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz and Santa Clara Counties. The Sacramento area also saw its loan limits increase to $580,000. What does this mean for the Northern California real estate market? Increased opportunity for new and existing home buyers. The purpose of this increase in loan limits is to assist individuals who currently have “jumbo” loans (greater than $417,000) to refinance into lower and more affordable rates and payments. With the traditionally strong spring market just around the corner, the new loan limits may be just the thing to revive the Northern California market. Read on.
Statistics:
Statewide: The median resale price of a single-family detached home in California for January was $430,370, a decrease of almost 10% for the month and about 22% from January 2007. Unsold resale inventory represented a 16.8-month supply, compared to 7.6 months (CAR’s figure) for the same period a year ago. Median number of days till sale was 72 in January, up from 69 a year ago.
San Francisco Bay: Spring and summer monthly sales were 7,000 to 8,000; in September, they declined to roughly 5,000 and stayed there for awhile; now in January they have declined again, to about 3,600. After staying above $600,000 for over two years, regional median is currently at $550,000.
County Statistics:
San Francisco County: Sales for this county have shown a hectic collection of peaks and valleys as far back as we go, but 262 for January seems to be about half the recent historical average. Median, though, has fallen less than 1% year-over-year and is less than 4% below the three-year average; the typical San Francisco County buyer is probably well-off and may be international, and we have always thought that sales here can depend on a reliable core of cash (or at least high-down-payment) customers.
Alameda County: January’s 494 sales were about a quarter as many of March 2007’s recent peak of 1,840. Median was in the vicinity of $600,000 from the summer of 2006 to the fall of 2007 and since then has dropped off.
San Mateo County: January sales of 237 were down by more than half year-over-year. Median is down more than 10% year-over-year and 11% from the two-year average.
Santa Clara County: Sales in January were 628, less than half of 1,607 a year earlier; not great until we look at January 2006 with 335, or January 2005 with 423. Santa Clara monthly sales are constantly bouncing between a few hundred and somewhere over 2,000, so in context, they are typical. Median meanwhile has lost about 5% year-over-year and, perhaps more to the point, about 8% from the two-year average…not bad.
Santa Cruz County: Now what is this about, with the same county showing both the steepest drop in median and the best – or, well, “least bad” – decline in sales month-over-month? Clearly Santa Cruz will bear watching, as is often true. Median has lost almost 20% from the two-year average and sales are down to double digits.
Interest Rates*: 30-year fixed, 5.90%; 15-year fixed; 5.27%; 5/1 ARM at 5.03% is showing an awfully big discount from 30-year fixed, since not long ago the two rates were almost comparable (remember how we kept complaining?). Nonconforming loans are obviously a different story with 30-year fixed at 6.88% and 5/1 ARM at 5.68%. Rates were headed for the sky for most of January, but the new pegging of the Fed funds rate at 3% – including, bear in mind, the biggest single cut in the history of the rate, 75 basis points in one swoop – will let lenders keep loan rates attractive.
Inventory: Once more with feeling: “In many areas, inventory now and probably for the rest of this year, simply does not have to figure into deliberations.” True last year, true now.
Overall Assessment: Last year we said, “Loans are easy to get and cheap, bargains are plentiful, and those who buy now may reap the rewards of their good luck for years or decades.” Let’s edit that for the new reality: With the conforming loan limits increased through the end of 2008 and bargains almost everywhere, those who buy now will enjoy the comfort of a roof over their heads and a historically strong, long-term investment. A home is an asset and the comfort and security that it brings offers incomparable stability to an entire household. Those wishing to buy a home owe it to themselves to consider the long-term benefits – there may be no time like the present to act.
*Area interest rates are reported to be as follows:
Sacramento/Tahoe, San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley regions: Princeton Capital reports that as of March 10, 2008, the 30-year fixed with one point is 7.25%, the 15-year fixed with one point is 6.375% and the 5/1 ARM with one point is 6.625%, on non-conforming loans of $500,000.
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